Sports Betting Picks

Betting Public Trends

Horse racing systems get bad publicity because there is so much junk being pushed at us. Methods that promise huge profits but in real life they are just trash.

Method marketers and builders fall into three main camps.

1. Con men: Harsh names but I think justified. These are people who have no interest in horse racing methods but they have realised that there are a lot of raving fans who would like to win money on betting.
They spend all of their time writing the sales letter that will suck in the unsuspecting punter.
They know that however bad the system is that only a tiny number will ask for a refund.

2. Fools: These are people who have found what they think is a profitable system but in reality it turns out to be just some coincedental wins.
These people dont realise the problems caused by making a system fit the data available. The fact is that given any set of data the diligent person can find a set of rules that could be applied to that data that will find enough winners to make a winning system.
Predicting the past is always easier than predicting the future.

3. The Professional: There are of course people who know about researching trends, who realise that a factor found in one set of data needs to be re tested on another different set of data before it can be considered reliable. If you are to buy a horse racing system then these are the people you should be following.

Here’s my step by step plan for creating a profitable betting method

1. look at lots of past data to find an indicator of winners. Something that looks to be common to a lot of successes that could maybe become the basis of a system.

2. Hone that idea by adding known sensible filters, things like days since last run (recent runs indicate that the horse is likely to fit), course and /or distance winners (have proven they can win in that race type) etc.
If you have a filter that says the horse must have run between 1 to 4 days ago or 10 to 20 days ago (IE but not 5 to 9) then you are just making your system fit the data.

3. And this is the critical step. Try your completed method on raw data. This is how you know you are on to something worthwhile. And if you then tweak it a bit so it looks good on both sets of data then you are back-fitting again.

The http://www.Betting-School.com website is your main resource for all things related to UK horse racing and betting. For horse racing systems goto Horse Racing Systems

About the Author

The ultimate horse racing system has to meet a number of criteria. First off it needs to make a profit! And that profitable system has to produce those profits on a consistent basis, Ideally we want our horse racing system to be profitable every month and if possible every week.